It is always fascinating how things most people dismiss as “unimportant, unnecessary, or even stupid” often evolve into the greatest successes in history. Take the current zeitgeist of digital finance: cryptocurrencies.
If we rewind to 2016 and 2017, media outlets and financial analysts were relentless in their criticism. Major institutions like JPMorgan reportedly considered firing any trader caught investing in Bitcoin. Fast forward to 2021, and the narrative flipped entirely; JPMorgan released reports suggesting Bitcoin could actually be a better hedge against inflation than gold.
The Amazon Anomaly
The same skepticism once clouded Amazon. After the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, investors were understandably wary of tech. But even by 2006—well after the initial crash—the data wasn’t exactly inspiring. The net income and loss figures looked precarious. To a purely “rational” observer looking at a spreadsheet, it didn’t look like the future of global commerce; it looked like a gamble.
Rationality vs. Belief: The Great Investor’s Dilemma
Looking back through the lens of history can be blinding. It is easy to say, “I would have invested $1,000 in Bitcoin or Amazon if I could go back in time.” In reality, the atmosphere of that era made such a choice nearly impossible for the average person.
I, too, had opportunities to invest in Bitcoin, NFTs, Tesla, and “meme stocks” like GameStop. Like most people, I didn’t pull the trigger. My reasoning was common:
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Lack of Vision: I couldn’t imagine these assets scaling to such heights.
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Functional Gaps: I read about Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) but couldn’t grasp their practical utility.
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The “Production Hell” Narrative: I followed Elon Musk daily, but at the time, Tesla was struggling through what Musk himself called “production hell.”
The Human Element in a Numerical Market
Even when we hear whispers of the “next big thing” from colleagues or the media, do we actually perform the deep research required to understand its future implications?
Rationally, we can analyze data and try to predict the future based on trends. However, making “real money” on a breakthrough technology requires something more than a rational mind: it requires belief.
While markets are often discussed in terms of numbers and algorithms, they are fundamentally driven by people. As long as human intuition and emotion haven’t been entirely replaced by computer trading programs, the market will continue to be shaped by the irrationality of human belief. That “belief” is what ultimately fuels the next big thing.
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